Last Friday night, the big debate. This was the debate that would make or break the candidates. Media pundits were saying how this is going to be “the most important debate ever.” Over 100 million people were supposedly going to be glued to their seats. One problem, less people watched this debate then the Bush/ Kerry first debate. Reading this in The Live Feed was a huge surprise for me, I mean, every media pundit has been going on about “how this is the most important election in our lifetime.” If people felt that way, wouldn’t more of them have watched? I mean were told by media pundits that Obama has so inspired the masses that this election he and his army of supporters are going to storm to the polls and take back the White House.
So my question is, if the country is so supercharged for Obama and “change” why does no one seem to be paying attention? The media has become drunk on their own hype, why don’t we bring them back down to earth for a moment.
The Polls Say Obama Is Going To Win…If Huge Numbers Of Democrats Vote- Look, lets cut through this area quickly because I have discussed these polls before. Most polls are weighted, heavily, democratic. The truth is, if Democratic voters outnumber Republican voters by heavy margins McCain is going to lose. Shocking isn’t it? We don’t need a poll to explain what is really quite obvious. Quick note to pollsters though, there has never been an election where Democrats outnumber Republicans on Election Day by 10 percent or more. So those of you out there, ahem ABC/ Washington Post pollsters , this is just wishful thinking on your part.
Old Folks Vs. Young Folks- The youth of America are going to win this for Obama; and if you believe that I have a bridge to sell you. The truth is this election is going to come down to who comes out to vote, baby boomers or college students. Do you want to guess who I am putting my money on? The fact is older Americans have the most at stake. People 45 and up, who are mostly McCain supporters, are the ones paying taxes and they are the main constituency who will feel the impact of an Obama or McCain presidency.
I predict it’s going to be 2004 all over again; the MTV crowd isn’t going to vote for Obama as big as he needs them too. Remember that ridiculous “Vote or Die” campaign targeted to the youth last election? I remember that didn’t work out so well for John Kerry. Maybe I’ll be wrong about this, but I don’t think so. The lack of interest in this first debate tells me that in this election, the same folks who watched and voted in the last election will be the same ones voting this time.
The Myth Of A Bad Economy= Democratic Victory- People vote based on the person, period. Who do they like? Who do they feel comfortable with? As these debates continue and McCain makes his case on the economic situation, I believe McCain can cut into Obama’s lead on the economic issues enough to win in November. If McCain starts running ads that label Obama as a radical tax increaser, then McCain will have this election in the bag. Every answer in the next two debates, I don’t care what the question is, needs to paint the picture of Obama as a “tax and spend liberal.” That’s how McCain, if he does it, will win.
Final Thoughts- If this is truly a “transformational election” the likes of which we have never seen, fine, I will cheerfully admit to being wrong and eat crow diligently. But there is something going on out there I think the media is missing. I think there is anger over this “bailout bill” and I think the public is frankly sick of both candidates.
Senator Obama has shown himself to be just a politician, and when you are relying on the support of idealistic youth, this is the worst thing that can happen to you. The only person who benefits from dampened enthusiasm is McCain. Unless Obama starts pulling away and recapturing some of the magic of the primaries, I believe McCain is going to win by default.
One quick caveat I would like to mention, and I will discuss this in greater detail at a later date, if Sarah Palin blows the debate this week it is over. I like Sarah, I am rooting for her, but she needs to get better in public. I don’t think Sarah Palin can win the election for McCain, but she might lose it for him if she doesn’t learn a lesson from her interviews and get better prepared. It looks like shes headed for debate camp this week and that is excellent news because, frankly, she needs it. These are just my opinions though, what do you think? I encourage comments and discussions but please keep it civil. Until next time…
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5 comments:
Nancy, I totally agree with your analysis! McCain needs to keep the "tax and spend" ads up for Obama (and why won't Obama quit lying that his "
tax break for 95% is only for those who make a taxable income LESS than $42k??)and Sarah does need to step it up a little on her interviews. I think she is GREAT and the dems are clearly TERRIFIED of her, but she needs just a little more help w/ debating. I have my fingers crossed...
The democrats are in power and their is plenty of video showing them blocking reform of Fannie and Freddie. People are not blaming Bush as much as you might expect in a down economy, but are blaming government in general. Bottom line it doesn't hurt McCain and his flying to DC to rescue the rescue looks like he is trying to help.
Governor Palin will to will do fine in her debate with the blow hard Biden. Expectations are low for Sarah and everyone will be watching for the moderator to try to do the gotcha stuff that made Charlie Gibson look like such a tool. My guess is Biden will come off like the horse's ass he is. Governor Palin will do better than expected.
i agree with you completely. the low viewership spoke volumes to me. obama is a creature of the media frenzy, not much different than the continuing reporting of lindsay lohan - who, frankly, i never heard of before the press found her to have a train-wreck life worthy of column inches.
if people are truly sitting this one out, then obama is toast. the traditional voting blocs are not liberal. they are at least center-right.
with all the hype we heard about gore and kerry, the press only managed to get close to a tie - but lost both times. i remember the treatment of reagan - precisely the same as they are treating W. but the public knew reagan was important. the press treatment swayed nothing.
another telling thing to me is the consistently poor polling on congress. if we are that unhappy with them, and they are admittedly liberal, how can the press expect the public to put a liberal in charge?
nothing lines up here. the press is wrong. the public is not swayed.
Thanks, Nancy. I'm taking a step back from the ledge I was on.
I agree with clyde, the low viewership is not good for Obama. If the election is starting to lose it's fevered appeal, it's usually the Democratic candidate that pays. GOPers have a higher turnout rate than Dems and elections with low turnout tend to favor the GOP. It is also possible that Palin will eventually get more enthusiasm than Obama.
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