Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Election Projections

Forget what you are hearing in the media because its nonsense. This race isn’t even as close as what is being portrayed, so I thought it would be fun a few days out from the first debate to take a look at different scenarios and what the candidates need to do to win. As you will see, it’s a much greater uphill battle for Obama then McCain:

269-269 Scenario- If this thing is close and one candidate doesn’t break away, this is what we are looking at potentially. There are many different ways to get to a tie, its almost painfully easy to do. Here is what would happen, as written by the Washington Times, if this scenario occurred:

On Nov. 5, the presidential election winds up in a electoral-college tie, 269-269, the Democrat-controlled House picks Sen. Barack Obama as president, but the Senate, with former Democrat Joe Lieberman voting with Republicans, deadlocks at 50-50, so Vice President Dick Cheney steps in to break the tie to make Republican Sarah Palin his successor.

Sound impossible? It's not. There are at least a half-dozen plausible ways the election can end in a tie, and at least one very plausible possibility - giving each candidate the states in which they now lead in the polls, only New Hampshire - which went Republican in 2000 and Democratic in 2004, each time by just 1.5 percent - needs to swap to the Republican column to wind up with a 269-269 tie.

While no one wants this scenario, I have to say it would be quite entertaining if this whole election came down to Dick Cheney. Democrats may want to start that mass migration to Canada now, its not looking good.

It’s A Much Tougher Map For Obama- McCain has a much easier time at the traditional electoral map. All McCain has to do is carry the traditionally solid red states and take Florida and Ohio. This is well within reach for the McCain camp. While Virginia and Colorado are showing some slippage for McCain, its nothing compared to what’s going on for Obama. Currently Obama is struggling with New Hampshire, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Florida. This guy is spending hand over fist and cannot break away in these states. While the press touts his tiny 4 point lead in a national Gallup Poll, the truth of the matter is he should be much farther ahead like Kerry was at this point. While Republicans are hemming and hawing about this election I would much rather be in McCain’s position then Obama’s.

Final Thoughts-
Look, the election should be Obama’s and therefore the impetus is on him to win this election. He has money, the country is having economic problems, and he has the entire press core. This race should not be this close, period. Before you start believing the nonsense in the press about how Obama is pulling ahead remember this is an electoral state battle and right now McCain is on the offense, while Obama is on the retreat. Until tomorrow…


wendy said...

Has anyone ever looked into the possibility that some black people are just publicly saying they are voting for Obama but in reality don't support him at all?

Nancy Swider said...

That is a possibility Wendy. While they may support him, how passionate is it? Is it enough to get him huge numbers on a state by state basis? I'm not sure, but I would say no.

Bob Scuba said...

On "The View", Bill Clinton says Hilary didn't want to be Obama's VP. He says he can see why people like Sarah Palin and her family.

He and Hilary like John McCain, respect and admire him. Passionately explaining that without John McCain telling him it was OK he couldn't have normalized relations with Vietnam. In other words, Hilary voters are free to vote for who ever they want and John and Sarah are good people. Looks like they are going to vote against Obama in large numbers. Even Biden thinks some of the anti McCain ads are "terrible", and he wouldn't have approved them.
But Obama, "get in their face and argue", did approve them.

cube said...

Interesting post. I just read
that Obama is also having trouble gathering a large crowd in Wisconsin.

Maybe the shine is coming off the apple?

commoncents said...

Great post Nancy! And I saw one today that had McCain up 3% in Michigan. As you know I had a similar story up on COMMON CENTS. You page looks great!!!



Chuck said...

Good post Nancy,
Some things that have come out in the last few days:

-Wisconsin was a Obama slam dunk, now is a statistical tie. He had a rally in Green Bay, drew 6000, McCain/Palin drew 10000 the week before.

-Rumors are that internal polling shows California may be able to be put into play, GOP is quietly making moves there.

-AP/Yahoo says Obama may be overpolling by as much as 6 points.

This ain't over yet.

Finally as to Wendy, what the media is not talking about is that he is getting close to the same percent of black voters as the Dems usually do. He's getting about 90%, GWB got 11%. Only real difference is if more come out to vote this year.