Sunday, September 7, 2008

Predictions For The Fall

Unfortunately I was unable to comment on the GOP convention like I did the Democratic convention because I was on a well deserved vacation. Let me just say in summary that I found the GOP convention to be far more successful then the dems and not just because way more people watched. Sarah Palin has single handedly saved the Republican nominee and the GOP party this election cycle. So what does this all mean? I'm going to go out on a limb and predict to you all right now that John McCain is going to win this election and I think fairly easily. Here are some key points to consider:

Ratings Matter- Consider how hyped the Democratic Convention was. Given how excited the media was, surely the nation couldnt wait to watch right? Wrong. The Democratic Convention averaged 30 million over 4 days. This may not sound that bad but consider that the GOP Convention drew 35 million over 3 days and it was on less networks. So, um, the enthusiam gap applies to which party??

Media Attacks On Sarah Palin-
After this election, once McCain wins, I wonder how much attention will be played to the medias role insuring a McCain victory. I mean, not that they wanted to, but there brazen personal attacks on Sarah Palin and obvious Obama bias has turned off a lot of voters. Sarah Palin, I dont care which party you belong too, we all know someone like Sarah. Shes a straight talking mom of 5 who has family problems just like everyone else. The way the media has treated this lady has galvanized center and right of center women to her cause. The republican party is unified and the democrats can thank the media for that.

Blue Collar Workers-
I personally think the media is in for a few surprised come election night, and thats thanks to blue collar workers. These men and women may have democratic leanings, but they are culturally conservative and I believe they will find McCain centrist enough to vote for him. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Minnesota I believe will turn red this year. I know the polls don't reflect it yet but this is where we are going to see the big surprise. These states will go red, Obama cant close the sale with the white middle class voters and that will be his downfall in these traditionally democratic states.

Final Thoughts-
These opinions may or may not come to fruition, but I believe unless Palin and McCain freeze in the debates this scenario is becoming more and more inevitable. The Obama campaign will have an impressive ground game, but the base is excited now and so are women. The Obama campaign can call and text there supporters all day long, but its getting very close to being to late...


AubreyJ said...

Great read, Nancy and I agree with you on ALL points.

I for one cannot wait until the polls come out by midweek. If our Party Nominees get a much bigger bounce than the Dems got the other week, I think that will tell us which way this election is heading...

Take care for now...

elwoodin said...

Fantastic post. I took your suggestion from your comment on my blog, to come to see yours.....and I like the way you think. This post is a good one, keep up the good work.

We need all the help we can get to keep Obama out of the White House.

The Infidel Talk Master